Scenario Planning

Scenario Planning is a technique for managing uncertainty in decision making It is especially useful when long-term investments must be evaluated despite the human inability to accurately predict the distant future. WECC scenarios are not developed or used to predict the future, but rather to imagine plausible energy futures of the Western Interconnection. When used well, this approach provides a method to better identify and understand emerging risks to the reliability of the Western Interconnection and to inform and provide guidance to decision making on actions that may be needed now to assure the future reliability of the Western Interconnection.

WECC Scenario Development is a learning loop process that builds upon itself through iterative study cycles (learning cycles). WECC Scenario Development adapts to trends and changes to the Western Interconnection that occur over time and builds upon lessons learned from previous study cycles. The process begins with a focus question and a set of key drivers and proceeds, through stakeholder engagement, to produce a set of Scenario Planning narrative upon which studies are crafted to assess risks to the reliability of the Western Interconnections and to inform decision makers of actions that may be needed to assure the future reliability of the Western Interconnection.